Comparing the Black Guard and the Executioners
First off a brief recap of the stats.
Black Guards have 2" range, 2 attacks, 3+ to hit, 3+ to wound, -1 Rend, 1 damage. Their Eternal Hatred gives them re-rolls of failed hit rolls of 1. They have battle shock synergy with Malekith, but that's it.
This gives them per attack a 51.9% chance to wound before saves.
Executioners have 1" range, 2 attacks, 3+ to hit, 3+ to wound, No Rend, 1 damage. They have the Severing Strike which gives them 2 Mortal Wounds on a hit roll of 6.
The only synergy I could find was from the Exiled Blood Cult... which isn't bad but immediately puts us in the realm of themed armies.
Executioners score:
- 33.3% chance to score a single wound, before saves.
- 16.6% chance to score 2 Mortal Wounds.
Comparing 1 model to 1 model, we see that Black Guards have a smaller chance to "fail", but this difference is small and offset by the Executioners who have a considerable chance at delivering 2 mortal wounds.
This is before comparing them against different adversaries and as a unit, when range comes into play.
The problem with comparing range is... well it's hard to model. A brief examination of formations shows that 1" range allows you to fight in 2 ranks and 2" range bumps this to 3 ranks. We could assume that this allows BG to bring up to 50% more models in contact with the enemy, thereby outclassing the executioners, but in a fluid game like AoS Executioners can adopt a different formation that brings more models in contact.
It's safe to assume that you'll be fielding and using them differently. Executioners need more close-up space.
Instead of modelling the impact of the extra range which is inaccurate at best, we can compare the performance and translate this to "how many more models (in percentage) do the BG need to bring into the fight to rival the executioners". As this percentage increases, we may realize the challenge that BG's are up to if they want to rival Executioners. Or perhaps we may realize that this is an easy task for them.
Performance comparison, per model, per enemy:
- vs Save 6.
- Executioners: 1.22 wounds. 54.5% from Mortal Wounds.
- Black Guards: 1.04 wounds.
- Black Guards need 17.9% more models in combat. Easy.
- vs Save 5.
- Executioners: 1.11 wounds. 60% from Mortal Wounds.
- Black Guards: 0.86 wounds.
- Black Guards need 28.6% more models in combat. Doable.
- vs Save 4.
- Executioners: 1.00 wounds. 66.7% from Mortal Wounds.
- Black Guards: 0.69 wounds.
- Black Guards need 44.6% more models in combat. Difficult. Might work in large units.
- vs Save 3.
- Executioners: 0.89 wounds. 75% from Mortal Wounds.
- Black Guards: 0.52 wounds.
- Black Guards need 71.4% more models in combat. Unlikely.
Right. A few observations:
- BGs match the Executioners easily against regular troops
- BGs struggle to rival Executioners against elite troops, and are flat out beaten against the toughest of opponents.
- The Severing Strike of Executioners counts for more than half their damage. As the opponent gets tougher, it becomes ever more important.
The severing strike is what gives the Executioners their edge. Rolling 6's seems like a fickle strategy but with 2 attacks a model you're quickly increasing the odds on getting some mortal wounds in.
On one hand, a larger unit will temper the risks of not rolling 6's and we can assume that Executioners function more reliably in larger numbers. On the other hand, their range makes them a little less effective in larger units, as it will force them to lap around the enemy to maximize contact.
Black Guards seem to permit some excellent defensive lines from middle sized units to large units, but it looks like they are more effective against regular infantry and will struggle against characters and buffed elite units.
I think both are viable. I'm tempted to say I'll prefer the way BGs play. But Executioners are definitely ace and my limited experience with AoS showed that 1" range weapons can still bring a ton of models in combat range.