List Building - Planning the Magic Phase

[Lord hajjij]

When picking lores for your sorceresses, there are a lot of things to consider. As we all know, the magic phase is quite unpredictable and random - but then again, so is the whole game - so all you can do is stack the odds in your favor as much as possible. In that light, I often try and plan for facilitating the magic phase based on my caster's level and lore.

What do I mean by this? Well, I like to generally cast with a number of dice that gives me a 90+% chance of success. There are obviously times this changes during the game, but when planning my army I stick to that dogma.

I created a chart that gives the probability of hitting a certain number at least 90% of the time based on the dice rolled. I'll call these the "ideal casting difficulties":

2d6 = 4
3d6 = 7
4d6 = 10
5d6 = 13
6d6 = 16

*Note this doesn't include the chance to cast with IF. If someone wants to do that math and let me know if this changes my chart, that'd be cool.*

Armed with that knowledge, I will kit out my sorceresses to try and hit those numbers (or slightly under). I try not to leave myself in a situation where I need an 8, for example, to cast an important spell, because I will have to throw 4d6 at that unless I want to take a larger risk it will not be cast.

For Example, take the Lore of Beasts:

#0 = 10;13
#1 = 5;8
#2 = 8;16
#3 = 9;15
#4 = 10;13
#5 = 10;20
#6 = 16;20

Consider me taking this lore on a sorceress on foot in a mainly infantry army. I would generally care about casting the following spells:

#0 (10)
#0 boosted (13)
#1 boosted (8)
#3 (9)
#3 boosted (15)
#4 (10)
#5 (10)
#6 boosted (20)

Now for some math. Assuming a Supreme Sorceress, do I want a level 3 or level 4?

#0 (10) = 7,6
#0 boosted (13) = 10,9
#1 boosted (8) = 5,4
#3 (9) = 6,5
#3 boosted (15) = 12,11
#4 (10) = 7,6
#5 (10) = 7,6
#6 boosted (20) (only if on foot) = 17,16

In the above case I'd most likely go with a level 3, since that gets me at or slightly under the "ideal casting difficulty" for most of the spells. Level 4 will really only help in the case of casting 1 (boosted) and 6 (boosted), which are on the rarer end of what spells I will be casting most often. (and #6 will most likely have 6d6 thrown at it anyway) Being able to cast spells 0,4,5 on 3d6 reliably is what I'm really looking for.

In a different light, consider taking this lore in an army with a couple Monsters, a block of COK and 3 Pegasus Masters. My sorceress is mounted. Now, I would be able to rely more on the lore attribute, and also the typical spells I cast might be different:

#0 (10)
#1 (5)
#2 boosted (16)
#3 (9)
#3 boosted (15)
#4 (10)
#5 (10)
#5 boosted (20)

In this scenario, I would consider a level 4 with the Book of Asur, giving me a +6 to cast on "beastial" targets thanks to the lore attribute.

#0 (10) = 4
#1 (5) = 3
#2 boosted (16) = 10
#3 (9) = 4 (lore attribute not reliable here)
#3 boosted (15) = 10 (lore attribute not reliable here)
#4 (10) = 4
#5 (10) = 4
#5 boosted (20) = 14

You can see that there are a lot of "ideal casting difficulties" above, which makes the Book of Asur worth it to be able to throw only 2d6 at spells 0,3,4,5. Without the book, you're looking at throwing an extra die if you want the 90+% probability to cast those spells.



Clearly, this isn't the "end all, be all" of kitting out your casters, or casting during the game. Things might be different if you are/aren't playing with Khaine magic rules and do/don't know all the spells of the lore, or are not comfortable with using less than a level 4 for dispelling purposes. Also, you might throw a lot more dice at a spell during a particular phase and make all this math moot. However, it is something that when planning the magic phase I will consider, and I wanted to share that insight. Hope it helps.

[Daeron]

Nice line of thought and well put. I once considered plotting out all probabilities for all levels on all spells with all sorts of dice. But I didn't pursue the idea for it was too cumbersome and overwhelming. They say it takes an intelligent person to break something complex down to something simple, so bravo to wording it so elegantly!

Your "optimal" dice list is correct even if you factor in IF. You listed the lowest probable outcomes for any number of dice. IF can only change that if it makes lower outcomes more probable. The proof is then simple:
2d6 = 4. IF gives at least 12, so cant lower this number.
3d6 = 7. IF gives at least 13, so cant lower this number.
4d6 = 10. IF gives at least 14, so cant lower this number.
5d6 = 13. IF gives at least 15, so cant lower this number.
6d6 = 16. IF gives at least 16, so cant lower this number.

[ferny]

You might like this thread over on Ulthuan:
http://www.ulthuan.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=75&t=45362

[Lord hajjij]

Thanks for the replies. That link is great - the information is layed out much better than mine - those charts looking great.

It's amazing how good the Book of Hoeth is for one dicing spells. Would love to have it in my Druchii host.

[Lord Drakon]

Thank you, very useful !