It's number crunching time

How to beat those cowardly High Elves?

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Phierlihy
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It's number crunching time

Post by Phierlihy »

I want to do some math-hammer to figure out just how good army-wide hatred will be. I know the old "the average on two six-sided dice is seven" stuff but when you add in a re-reoll, does anyone have the math skills to figure out (and explain on a forum) how the percentages go up?
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Lakissov
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Post by Lakissov »

that's quite easy.

the only thing that changes with hatred for most units (except those with poison) is the amount of hits. now, we hit most things on 3+ or 4+. meaning, the chance to hit against most things is 67% or 50%. when you add the re-roll, the chance to hit becomes:

for 3+: 4/6+2/6*4/6 = 89% instead of 67% without the reroll, which means that you should have on average 33% more hits and thus (because the chance to wound and to save is the same, regardless of the hatred) kills (89%/57%-100%=33%)
For 4+: 3/6 + 3/6*3/6 = 75% instead of 50% without hatred, which means on average 50% more kills.

which means that if you were previously intending to inflict 3-4 wounds with your, let's say, cold ones on the charge on some unit, now you can expect to inflict 33%-50% more. very substantial benefit, if you ask me.
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Jayferd22
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Post by Jayferd22 »

I might add to this that the HE ASF rule is comparable to this when you charge the HE (depending on how many wounds you can cause). If you expect to kill 2 HE's on the charge with a 5 man front, that is 2 fewer attacks. Those two additional attacks they gain with the ASF rule tend to give around 20-60% more hits (depending on how many wounds you would normally do if that rule were not in place). I feel like the Hatred is a very comparable rule to the ASF rule, once again, depending on how many HE you would normally kill without that rule.
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Vorchild
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Post by Vorchild »

For a single attack, here's some math.

Against 2x+1 WS (5+ to hit): 0.33 vs. 0.56 with hatred.
Against higher WS (4+ to hit): 0.50 vs. 0.75 with hatred.
Against lower WS (3+ to hit): 0.67 vs. 0.89 with hatred.

For a single attack with poison (autowounds only):

Against 2x+1 WS (5+ to hit): 0.17 vs. 0.28 with hatred.
Against higher WS (4+ to hit): 0.17 vs. 0.25 with hatred.
Against lower WS (3+ to hit): 0.17 vs. 0.22 with hatred.

There ya go. In terms of percentage hits gained, on average its about 30% more hits per attack. Its also key to recognize that hatred works better (percentage increase-wise) against elite units than against regular grunts which gives a unit with hatred an edge where it aught to need it.
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Aginor26
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Post by Aginor26 »

Nice, never thought that deeply into hatred :)
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