Witch Elves vs. Savage Orc Big 'Uns

[Archamedius]

So I came across this pod cast the other day: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUplYzQU5Ls and even though it was old, I was interested in what this guy had to say about Dark Elves regardless.

He seemed to believe fairly strongly that witch elves were an average unit at best, and also thought that his Savage Orc Big 'Uns were a superior force. So I decided to do some math hammer, and I must be missing something because the fight looks horribly one sided in favor of the witch elves.

Can someone help me fix my math? Or maybe point out something I am missing?

If we go strictly by the odds (I know Warhammer isn't always an odds game, but you for the purposes of this argument it is easiest if we assume all numbers are rolled equally) I see the following:

30 Witch Elves with Full Command Vs. 30 Savage Orc Big 'Uns with Full Command:

The witch elves come in about 40 points under, which is all the more to my point:

It doesn't matter who charges now since combat is always in initiative order:

Witch Elves strike first on Initiative 6:

51 attacks: (31 for the front rank, +10 for the second rank and 10 for the third rank)
25 hit first roll, 8 6s (On average, 51 dice, 8 will come up 6)
13 of the rerolls hit, 4 more 6s

Total: 26 hits and 12 6s (Auto Wounds)

Of the 26 hits, 8 will wound
Total Wounds: 20

Total saves 3

Final Casualties: 17

This is where it hurts the orcs, a lot. The Orcs now only have 13 models left in the unit to swing back.

Orc return attacks:

34 total attacks (10 in the front rank for 31 +3 additional for the second rank)
17 total hits
14 total wounds

Witch Elves have combat resolution of 19 vs. Orc combat resolution of 15. Orcs lose by 4 and are no longer steadfast. They lose frenzy and there is a good chance they run right here. Assuming they pass their leadership test and stick around for turn 2. Now the orcs are down to strength 4 (wound on 3s instead of 2s) and no more frenzy. Witch Elves conversely lose hatred.

Turn 2 is even worse for the Orcs as the witch elves should cause 8 wounds (after saves) and take only 2 in return. So at the end of turn 2 they can still reform into a smaller block and switch out of horde formation to go be effective somewhere else.

So what am I not considering? Is my math somehow wrong? Or was this guy just way off in his prediction about how the fight would come out. One thing seems certain, you both need to roll out average across the first round of combat, if the orc player comes out ahead at all, the battle swings in his favor. I think you can tolerate 1 or 2 casualties at most less, probably just one before the combat swings in his favor.

Obviously this does not take into account any other activities in the game or random chance for the dice to swing one way or the other in a big way. It is a bit of a vacuum test, but sometimes these exercises are decent.

[Setomidor]

Your math seems accurate at a glance, but apart from Giants, Zombies or Ghouls I would say that Savage Orcs are the best possible unit in the game for the Witches to fight. Reasonably expensive troops with no armour save is the only opposition against which the Witches excel without considerable Magic support, so I was actually surprised that they only came out 19 to 15. The Savage Orcs are considered better simply because they put out a shitload of S5 attacks during the first turn of combat, and even heavily armoured knights are afraid of that. On top of that, they're also Core and their T4 and 6++ makes them somewhat more resilient to shooting.

[Kargan daemonclaw]

It's very common to put a shaman with lucky shrunken head into the unit increasing the ward save to 5++ that would change the maths back into the Orcs favour.

[Archamedius]

It's very common to put a shaman with lucky shrunken head into the unit increasing the ward save to 5++ that would change the maths back into the Orcs favour.

Except that shaman is probably at least what, 100 points?

Imagine adding an assassin or some death hag BSB to the witch elves to compensate, how does that change things?

I was comparing the two units on their own in a vacuum because that was what the pod caster was doing, and trying to see how he felt his were better.

[Manit0u]

From the orcish forums it seems that SOBUs are usually accompanied by a shrunken head shaman, black orc bsb and black orc warboss (to avoid animosity and not lose tons of points doing nothing). It's a deathstar unit for all purposes, risky but it does pay its rent most of the time from what I gather.

[Omnichron]

Being core is the main benefit of the savage orcs. Having S5 attacks is the second.

I really hope witch elves will be core and get some nice options for upgrades... as for who is best, witch elves are of course! We have mindrazor!

[Killerk]

give WE KB from cauldron, and before mindrazor, get a pit of shades in there.

[Sig121]

Your math is spot on in that scenario. I'm assuming you've watched the other Malorian stuff to see how he normally runs that savage block in tournaments. It looks like it is generally 40 models, sometimes with the 5++ save. Makes it hard to do enough casualties to reduce the attacks you're taking. A block of 30 or even 40 witches in a 10x formation will lose to that type of savage block by around 5 in the first round and go downhill from there. Granted, the savage unit is going to be pushing 550 points or so at cheapest, so it is not a point per point comparison.

Against the 40 man savage horde with shrunken head, you'd need to spread your witches out to a 14x frontage (max to front up on 10x 25mm bases) and put up the extra attack buff from the cauldron. That'd net you 73 attacks from 30 witches and put out around 20 unsaved wounds, basically equaling what the orcs will do back. With 40 witches (85 attacks), you should win by a few due to more supporting attacks. It isn't impossible, but without some creative formations or buffs, the straight up fight isn't usually in the witches' favor if you look at the strong savage build.

[Vulcan]

If he's backing that savage orc unit with a character to give them a 5+ save, it's perfectly fair for us to back the witches with either a cauldron or a Shadow sorceress. It makes for a much better point-for-point matchup that way. To make them really nasty, take fewer Witches and BOTH support options.

I'd bet on S8 Witches over 5++ Savage Orcs any day.

[Rabidnid]

So I came across this pod cast the other day: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUplYzQU5Ls and even though it was old, I was interested in what this guy had to say about Dark Elves regardless.

He seemed to believe fairly strongly that witch elves were an average unit at best, and also thought that his Savage Orc Big 'Uns were a superior force. So I decided to do some math hammer, and I must be missing something because the fight looks horribly one sided in favor of the witch elves.

I don't disagree with him. The girls are situational by themselves and need support from the CoB versus a lot of opponents to be effective.

The Orks with their S-5 and core - and cheaper characters - are going to be generally more useful.

Actually comparing the two against each other is missing his point entirely.

[Atanatari165]

So I came across this pod cast the other day: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bUplYzQU5Ls and even though it was old, I was interested in what this guy had to say about Dark Elves regardless.

He seemed to believe fairly strongly that witch elves were an average unit at best, and also thought that his Savage Orc Big 'Uns were a superior force. So I decided to do some math hammer, and I must be missing something because the fight looks horribly one sided in favor of the witch elves.

I don't disagree with him. The girls are situational by themselves and need support from the CoB versus a lot of opponents to be effective.

The Orks with their S-5 and core - and cheaper characters - are going to be generally more useful.

Actually comparing the two against each other is missing his point entirely.

No the Witch Elves are going to be generally more useful...because they are in the Dark Elf book, which is quite a few notches up from Orcs and Goblins in terms of power level. How often do those savage orcs get buffed up by a 10 dice Winrazor?

But seriously, once you start extending things beyond the units themselves the comparison becomes too murky. Stick to the units. People use Savage Orc Big'uns for their big choppy block. I would submit that Witch Elves are a better big choppy block because they strike at initiative 6, they have re-rolls, and they have poison. Poison trumps any amount of toughness, and it also means they don't lose much effectiveness when hitting on 6s (Nurgle Daemon Prince anyone?).

The Savage Orcs are slightly tougher with T4, but they are also slower and can be mowed down by a Purple Sun due to their low initiative (Am I the only one running into a lot of L4 Death Daemon Princes lately?).

As for shrunken head, we have the cauldron which does the same thing...only the cauldron can be safely behind the unit. Oh and it makes the witches stubborn. Did I mention the Witches have higher Ld?

Really the main disadvantages of the Witch elves are 1) they are special rather than core 2) they are Khainite so regular characters cannot join them 3) they are not as good against armor, although banner of murder reduces that problem to -1 AS vs. -2. The Orcs S5 is still not enough to cut through 1+ armor very well, so I don't see this as a huge difference.

Consider fighting 5 Skullcrushers. 30 Savage orcs first lose 14 orcs to the Skullcrushers, they deal 4 wounds back, and then lose 3 more orcs to stomps. Witch Elves strike first, dealing 3.5 wounds. They then lose 20 witches. So Savage orcs do better vs. armor, but only marginally, and mostly just in the first round. After that S3+ poison and AP is about the same as S4. Witch Elves with Mindrazor and Banner of Murder deal 33 wounds and take 0! Even if you only get mindrazor off every other turn, in a lot of cases it is still better than S5 every turn.