Supposed Warmachine Nerf

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Maldor
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Supposed Warmachine Nerf

Post by Maldor »

There's been a lot of people saying that the new rules for shooting at warmachines have made RBT's too vulnerable to take. I did a little math-hammer though, and the results don't seem to point that way.

(All of the below are calculating the odds of a wound from a single hit, as hitting is the same in both 7th and 8th)

1 Strength 3 hit against RBT
7th ed: 1 hit x 1/3 (randomizing to hit crew) x 1/2 (S3 vs T3) x 5/6 (odds of failing armor save) = 0.1389 wounds
8th ed: 1 hit x 1/6 (S3 vs T7) x 5/6 (odds of failing armor save) = 0.1389 wounds

1 Strength 4 hit against RBT
7th ed: 1 hit x 1/3 (randomizing to hit crew) x 2/3 (S4 vs T3, no armor save) = 0.2222 wounds
8th ed: 1 hit x 1/6 (S4 vs T7, no armor save) = 0.1667 wounds

So against T3 shooting, our RBTs have the same odds of losing a crew member as in 7th, and against S4 or higher shooting the odds of surviving have actually improved.

While we're at it, let's look at shooting against the CoB, for those who have complained that it's gone from "indestructible" to "vulnerable".

1 Strength 3 hit against CoB
7th ed: 1 hit x 1/3 (randomizing to hit crew) x 1/2 (S3 vs T3) x 1/2 (odds of failing ward save) = 0.0833 wounds
8th ed: 1 hit x 1/6 (S3 vs T7) x 1/2 (odds of failing ward save) = 0.0833 wounds

1 Strength 4 hit against CoB
7th ed: 1 hit x 1/3 (randomizing to hit crew) x 2/3 (S4 vs T3) x 1/2 (odds of failing ward save) = 0.1111 wounds
8th ed: 1 hit x 1/6 (S4 vs T7) x 1/2 (odds of failing ward save) = 0.0833 wounds

Again, against S3 attacks, there is no statistical difference between the two editions, and higher S attacks will actually wound crew less often than they did in 7th.
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Blaqkheart
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Post by Blaqkheart »

Thanks for this bit of information! makes me feel more confident on fielding my RBT's and makes me worry as much as to where my Cauldron should be placed. If I was into doing some math I'd try to make sure it was correct, but since I'm not I'll just accept this and be happy =).
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Post by Siegecommander »

problem isn't how easy it is to wound it is how many wounds you have. At least in my experience in 7th a RBT could weather a few shots because 1-2 wounds would go on the bolt thrower. Now 2 sixes spell the end of a 100pt model. That's what I think anyways, for all I know I could be completely wrong.
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Post by Kensou »

Siege commander is right.

100 pts is too much for a 2 wound model.
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Post by Calisson »

Kensou wrote:100 pts is too much for a 2 wound model.
What about 200pts/225pts for a 4 wound model? :roll:
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Post by Sloeberjong »

SiegeCommander wrote:problem isn't how easy it is to wound it is how many wounds you have. At least in my experience in 7th a RBT could weather a few shots because 1-2 wounds would go on the bolt thrower. Now 2 sixes spell the end of a 100pt model. That's what I think anyways, for all I know I could be completely wrong.


As far as I can see randomisation on the machine or crew is already included in Maldor's calculations.

So that still means the survivability is actually better in 8th mathematical speaking, regardless of your experience ;)

So wether you'd pay 100 pts for 2 wounds or not doesn't matter, that's up to you. But in 8th it is more likely to survive shooting attacks then in 7th, so it's "worth" more technically...
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Post by Thanatoz »

Calisson wrote:
Kensou wrote:100 pts is too much for a 2 wound model.
What about 200pts/225pts for a 4 wound model? :roll:


That 4 wound model has a 4+ ward save (so 8 wounds), 3+ ward vs magic (so 12 wounds against magic missiles), cannot panic as long as it's frenzied, and has terror which isn't as good as it used to be, but still counts for something so that's not really a good comparison.
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Post by Maldor »

Yes, randomization is factored in to the odds of losing the crew. In 7th you hit crew 1/3 of the time and wounded 1/2 against T3. Now you wound 1/6 of the time against T7. 1/3 x 1/2 = 1/6, and that's only counting S3 shots. Higher S shots actually wound less than in 7th because they still require 6s to wound (unless shooting with S6 or more, which is few and far between), where as in 7th they would wound on 3s or better after randomizing.
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Post by Vindur »

One thing that isn't taken into account is weapons that cause multiple wounds carrying over through crew members.

Cannon this edition needs 2s followed by 2s to kill the BT

In 7th 1/3 of the time it would only kill 1 crewman. Even if it hit the machine it was 2s followed by 3s to wipe the machine
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Post by Sulla »

Vindur wrote:One thing that isn't taken into account is weapons that cause multiple wounds carrying over through crew members.

Cannon this edition needs 2s followed by 2s to kill the BT

In 7th 1/3 of the time it would only kill 1 crewman. Even if it hit the machine it was 2s followed by 3s to wipe the machine
Isn't the RBT t10 in 8th?
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Post by Mr. anderson »

No it isn't. Still T7, though that makes almost no difference against most attacks now.
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Post by Maldor »

So with the exception of cannons, RBTs are more durable than before, and maybe it's just me, but if my opponent decides to aim for an RBT (a relatively small target for a cannon anyway, easy to over shoot or under-bounce) than one of my large infantry blocks coming toward him, then the battle is already half won.
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Post by Bounce »

I don't know about other but getting shot at has never been one of my bolt throwers problems and I doubt it will become so. The major danger to bolt throwers comes from fast cavalry and the like.

On the plus side our high initiative will really come in handy vs a lot of fast cav

On the down side a lot of people seem to be saying Fast Cav are now useless and won't take them.

The other problem with our Bolties is their shooting is now less useful. No more +1 to large targets and more large blocks of infantry makes them less useful. I'll still probably take them because I don't have anything else.
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Post by Ant »

The real problem with the new warmachine rules comes when you factor in poisoned shooting. I know that only 2 armies (lizards and skaven) really have access to it but it really does make a huge difference. In one game I had in 8th with my skaven a single unit of 8 gutter runners took out a chariot in turn 1, RBT in turn 2, another RBT in turn 3, 3 wounds from the cauldron in turn 4 and finished it off in turn 5. And all I had to do was get the unit within 18" of them - really not difficult.
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Post by A18no »

Actually, the probabilty for S3 shooting hasn't changed.

7th
To kill the 2 handlers, you need 2 wounds, so need 4 hits
To make 4 hits, you need 12 hit before randomise
To make 12 hit (when hitting on 4+), you needed 24 shots.

8th
To make 2 wounds, you need 12 hits
To hit 12 time on 4+, you need 24 shots.

So the machine is better against S4 than it was. Cause it still wound the machine on 6+ for 2 wounds (can wound on 6 in 7th, but against 3 wounds), so need 24 shot in 8th to kill it. But would have wound the handlers on 3+ in 7th.
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Re: Supposed Warmachine Nerf

Post by Fr0 »

RBT have still remained very effective in my lists, and I'm very diligent about guarding them, so no there is no nerf on my RBT.
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Post by Gorbad ironclaw »

Kensou wrote:100 pts is too much for a 2 wound model.


While you are absolutely correct, the RBT was already the most over-costed Warmachine in the game during 6th and 7th, so that it might be slightly easier to kill now doesn't really change that much. The Steamtank going to T10 is probably worse for it actually as that was one of the few good reasons to bring one.
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Re: Supposed Warmachine Nerf

Post by Mr. anderson »

Fr0 wrote:RBT have still remained very effective in my lists, and I'm very diligent about guarding them, so no there is no nerf on my RBT.


If you build your list to include them and take them into account when planning your tactics while you're writing your list.
However, I have mostly only taken RBTs as an after thought, mostly I didn't have the points left so somehow squeezed them in. In this edition, because you have to write your lists with them, and beause arguably they are easier to kill, I think I'll do without them.

The Steamtank going to T10 is probably worse for it actually as that was one of the few good reasons to bring one.


Really, RBTs against sTanks aren't the beast weapon. They're better off frying knights and small units like outriders that'll die on 3+ without saves. Either way, though, lore of metal takes care of knights and the steam tank extremely effectively, reducing RBTs to shooting down 5-strong (or the type of units that used to be 5 strong, i.e. fast cav) units, however there will probably be less of those around as they don't break ranks any more (I still use them to kill war machines etc., but in general, I think there will be less as people focus on larger blocks of cavalry and infantry, not leaving a lot of points to take these sorts of units).
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Post by Gorbad ironclaw »

Before the errate the RBT was one of the few semi-reliable ways elf armies had to put wounds on a Steam tank at a distance. It still wasn't a great choice for it, wounding on a 4+ and all, but it could be done.

The problem really is that if you use the single shot you are paying way more points for that single shot than anyone else have to (3 times as much as a goblin Bolt Thrower, although admittedly it's BS 3 to almost twice as much as the much more resilient BS 4 Dwarf Bolt Thrower), and if you are shooting volley shots why not just buy more RXBs?

It seems to be a legacy machine still living high (or at least costed high) on it's 4th/5th ed rules.
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Post by Duguay-trouin »

Luckily this thread isn't in the Tactics section, so I can say something goofy, like:

I'm going to keep my RBT because it looks cool and fits into my corsair themed army :)
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Post by Maldor »

I just realized this thread got added into the D.R.A.I.C.H. I feel so accomplished.
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